diff --git a/apps/web/src/workers/sim.worker.test.ts b/apps/web/src/workers/sim.worker.test.ts
index 0665617..3081a23 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/workers/sim.worker.test.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/workers/sim.worker.test.ts
@@ -1230,6 +1230,20 @@ describe('sim worker narrative APIs', () => {
     expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal < 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
   });
 
+  it('keeps setup preview projections conservative instead of clustering at 97 wins', () => {
+    const workerApi = api as typeof api & MinorLeagueWorkerApi;
+    const wins = TEAMS.map((team) => parseProjectedWins(workerApi.getSetupPreview({
+      seed: 2124,
+      userTeamId: team.id,
+      difficulty: 'standard',
+    }).projectedRecord));
+
+    expect(Math.max(...wins)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(95);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 95)).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 90).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(6);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 97)).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
+
   it('initializes career mode and exposes the GM career ledger', () => {
     startGameWithOptions({
       seed: 919,
diff --git a/packages/sim-core/src/onboarding/dayOne.ts b/packages/sim-core/src/onboarding/dayOne.ts
index 1bcec7d..f5a3166 100644
--- a/packages/sim-core/src/onboarding/dayOne.ts
+++ b/packages/sim-core/src/onboarding/dayOne.ts
@@ -159,8 +159,8 @@ interface DayOneTeamMetadata {
 
 const REQUIRED_LINEUP_POSITIONS: readonly Position[] = ['C', '1B', '2B', '3B', 'SS', 'LF', 'CF', 'RF', 'DH'];
 const LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS = 81;
-const PROJECTED_WIN_MAX_SPREAD = 20;
-const PROJECTED_WIN_CURVE_EXPONENT = 0.82;
+const PROJECTED_WIN_MAX_SPREAD = 14;
+const PROJECTED_WIN_CURVE_EXPONENT = 1.2;
 const ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS = {
   offense: 0.4,
   rotation: 0.34,
diff --git a/packages/sim-core/tests/dayOne.test.ts b/packages/sim-core/tests/dayOne.test.ts
index 97df985..0559e52 100644
--- a/packages/sim-core/tests/dayOne.test.ts
+++ b/packages/sim-core/tests/dayOne.test.ts
@@ -237,6 +237,16 @@ describe('day one helpers', () => {
     expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal < 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
   });
 
+  it('keeps setup projections conservative instead of assigning many elite records', () => {
+    const players = generateLeaguePlayers(new GameRNG(2124), TEAMS.map((team) => team.id));
+    const wins = TEAMS.map((team) => buildDayOneOrgReview(players, team.id).projectedWins);
+
+    expect(Math.max(...wins)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(95);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 95)).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 90).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(6);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal >= 97)).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
+
   it('builds deterministic teaser copy from the same team and Day One choices', () => {
     const context = {
       teamId: 'hou',