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Notation

Basic Objects

  • Gcal: space of possible games
  • g: a specific game
  • A(g): set of admissible actions in game g
  • pi: policy
  • pi_local: locally optimal policy
  • pi_alt: feasible alternative policy

State and Dynamics

  • x_t: aggregate state at time t
  • o_t: future optionality
  • l_t: lock-in
  • z_t: remaining state variables
  • F: state dynamics
  • Phi: permanence or game-change dynamics

Payoffs and Value

  • r(x, a, g): local payoff
  • U(x_t, a_t, g_t): instantaneous structural utility
  • J^pi(x_0, g_0): discounted structural value of policy pi
  • delta: intertemporal discount factor
  • lambda: optionality weight
  • mu: lock-in weight
  • c: generic cost
  • chi: explicit exit or reconfiguration cost
  • eta: weight of the explicit exit cost in the structural functional

Minimal Model

  • exploit: local-gain-maximizing policy
  • preserve: structurally prudent policy
  • kappa_E: optionality survival factor under exploit
  • kappa_P: closing factor for the gap to full optionality under preserve
  • Delta r = r_exploit - r_preserve
  • Gamma: structural optionality premium
  • lambda_*: critical threshold for structural weight

Capture

  • p_stay(r): probability of remaining in the game given observed payoff
  • alpha, beta, gamma: parameters of the logistic permanence function
  • e: perceived exit cost
  • q: proxy for local competence
  • tau_bad: time spent in the bad game