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Hong Kong: Polymarket resolution station (HK Observatory HQ) unreachable via IEM — needs HKO data source #46

@helloiamvu

Description

@helloiamvu

Summary

Polymarket's Hong Kong temperature markets resolve on the Hong Kong Observatory HQ ("Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" from the HKO Daily Extract, weather.gov.hk) — an urban Kowloon station that is not an airport. The SDK's observation path (exact_fetch_observations / daily_extremes, keyed by ICAO airport code via IEM) cannot reach it.

Evidence

  • IEM's entire Hong Kong network contains exactly one station — VHHH (Chek Lap Kok airport):
    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/geojson/network/HK__ASOS.geojson → 1 feature, VHHH - Hong Kong.
  • HKO HQ has no ICAO code, so it isn't in STATIONS and can't be fetched via the ICAO/IEM path.

Impact

Any HK model/settlement built on the SDK has to proxy to VHHH, which differs systematically from the true resolution station:

  • HKO HQ = dense urban Kowloon (heat-island), typically warmer;
  • VHHH = island airport ~30 km west, maritime / cooler.

So a VHHH-based daily-max is the wrong target for HK settlement (different mean and variance). In a 51-city Polymarket backtest, Hong Kong was the only city whose actual resolution station could not be reached from IEM — every other city resolves on an airport ICAO that IEM carries.

Suggested fix

Add a Hong Kong Observatory data source (HKO Open Data API / weather.gov.hk Daily Extract) for the HK resolution station — and, more generally, support non-airport, national-met-service resolution stations (a few markets resolve on met-service HQs rather than airports). At minimum, flag in the catalog that HK has no IEM-reachable settlement station so callers don't silently proxy to VHHH.

Found while building international Polymarket daily-max backtests on the SDK (mostlyrightmd 1.3.1).

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