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probablyprofit Deployment Guide

Quick Start

# 1. Clone and setup
git clone <repo-url>
cd polymarket-ai-bot

# 2. Configure environment
cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env with your API keys

# 3. Deploy (dry-run mode by default)
./deploy.sh

Deployment Modes

1. Dry-Run Mode (Default)

Safe mode - analyzes markets but doesn't execute trades.

./deploy.sh
# or
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml up -d

Dashboard: http://localhost:8000

2. Paper Trading Mode

Simulates trades with virtual money. Perfect for testing strategies.

./deploy.sh paper

Dashboard: http://localhost:8001

Configuration:

PAPER_CAPITAL=10000  # Starting virtual capital

3. Live Trading Mode

REAL MONEY - Use with caution!

./deploy.sh live

Requires confirmation and valid:

  • PRIVATE_KEY for Polymarket

4. Ensemble Mode

Uses multiple AI providers for consensus-based decisions.

./deploy.sh ensemble

Requires API keys for multiple providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google).

5. Backtest Mode

Historical simulation with synthetic data.

./deploy.sh backtest

Configuration

Required Environment Variables

For Polymarket:

PRIVATE_KEY=your_polygon_private_key
INITIAL_CAPITAL=1000.0

For AI (at least one required):

OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...
GOOGLE_API_KEY=...
ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...

Optional Features

# Web Dashboard
ENABLE_WEB_DASHBOARD=true
WEB_DASHBOARD_PORT=8000

# Data Persistence
ENABLE_PERSISTENCE=true

# Intelligence Layer (enhanced analysis)
PERPLEXITY_API_KEY=pplx-...
TWITTER_BEARER_TOKEN=...
REDDIT_CLIENT_ID=...
REDDIT_CLIENT_SECRET=...

Trading Configuration

Override via environment or CLI:

Variable CLI Flag Options
PLATFORM --platform polymarket
STRATEGY --strategy mean-reversion, momentum, value, contrarian, volatility, calendar, arbitrage, news, custom
AGENT --agent openai, gemini, anthropic, ensemble, fallback
INTERVAL --interval seconds between loops
SIZING --sizing manual, fixed_pct, kelly, confidence_based, dynamic

Commands

# Start (dry-run)
./deploy.sh

# Start (paper trading)
./deploy.sh paper

# Start (live trading)
./deploy.sh live

# Start (ensemble)
./deploy.sh ensemble

# Run backtest
./deploy.sh backtest

# Run locally (no Docker)
./deploy.sh local

# View logs
./deploy.sh logs

# Stop all services
./deploy.sh stop

# Build only
./deploy.sh build

Docker Commands

# Build image
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml build

# Start specific profile
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml --profile paper up -d

# View logs
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml logs -f

# Stop
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml down

# Shell into container
docker exec -it probablyprofit_bot /bin/bash

Local Development

# Create virtual environment
python3 -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate

# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Build frontend
cd frontend && npm install && npm run build && cd ..

# Run
python -m probablyprofit.main --dry-run --strategy mean-reversion

Architecture

probablyprofit/
├── agent/              # AI agents (OpenAI, Gemini, Anthropic)
├── api/                # Platform clients (Polymarket)
├── backtesting/        # Historical simulation
├── intelligence/       # News & alpha signal sources
├── resilience/         # Retry, circuit breaker, rate limiter
├── risk/               # Risk management & position sizing
├── storage/            # SQLite persistence
├── trading/            # Paper trading engine
└── web/                # FastAPI + React dashboard

Monitoring

The web dashboard provides:

  • Real-time status and P&L
  • Position tracking
  • Trade history
  • Risk exposure analysis
  • Arbitrage opportunity scanner
  • Paper trading portfolio

Troubleshooting

Container won't start

# Check logs
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml logs probablyprofit

# Rebuild
docker compose -f probablyprofit/docker-compose.yml build --no-cache

API errors

  1. Verify API keys in .env
  2. Check rate limits (use --interval 120 for slower polling)
  3. Enable fallback agent: --agent fallback

Frontend not loading

# Rebuild frontend
cd frontend && npm run build && cd ..

Health Check

# Check API status
curl http://localhost:8000/api/status

# Check health endpoint
curl http://localhost:8000/health

Security Notes

  • NEVER commit .env to version control
  • Use read-only volume mounts for .env in Docker
  • Run as non-root user (default in Dockerfile)
  • Start with --dry-run always