(1) an arima forecast (2) combined plot of arima and bvar (3) a Bvar forecast (4) Us-China trade partnership (5) Framework diagram (6) Gravity theory model MonteCarlo simulation (7) Monte-Carlo simulation tailored to different trading profile (8) politcial alignment (East vs West) (9) P5 political alignment (over time)

GDPgrowth.xls is used in (1),(2),(3)

(additional) the dataset used in (6) can be found here: Conte, M., Cotterlaz, P. and Mayer, T. (2022) The CEPII Gravity database. Working Paper No. 2022-05, CEPII, Paris.