[codex] fix setup preview record distribution

apps/web/src/workers/sim.worker.test.ts

@@ -451,6 +451,15 @@ interface MinorLeagueWorkerApi {
   } | null>;
 }
 
+function parseProjectedWins(record: string): number {
+  const match = /^(\d+)-(\d+)$/.exec(record);
+  expect(match).not.toBeNull();
+  const wins = Number(match?.[1] ?? 0);
+  const losses = Number(match?.[2] ?? 0);
+  expect(wins + losses).toBe(162);
+  return wins;
+}
+
 function createPlayerStats(overrides: Partial<PlayerGameStats>): PlayerGameStats {
   return {
     playerId: 'player',
@@ -1206,6 +1215,21 @@ describe('sim worker narrative APIs', () => {
     expect(creation.userTeamId).toBe('por');
   });
 
+  it('surfaces a realistic league-wide spread of setup preview records', () => {
+    const workerApi = api as typeof api & MinorLeagueWorkerApi;
+    const wins = TEAMS.map((team) => parseProjectedWins(workerApi.getSetupPreview({
+      seed: 2124,
+      userTeamId: team.id,
+      difficulty: 'standard',
+    }).projectedRecord));
+
+    expect(wins.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0)).toBe(TEAMS.length * 81);
+    expect(Math.max(...wins)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(94);
+    expect(Math.min(...wins)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(70);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal > 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal < 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
+  });
+
   it('initializes career mode and exposes the GM career ledger', () => {
     startGameWithOptions({
       seed: 919,

packages/sim-core/src/onboarding/dayOne.ts

@@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ interface TeamUnitScores {
   defense: number;
   farm: number;
   mlb: number;
-  projectedWins: number;
+  winStrength: number;
   topProspectName: string | null;
 }
 
@@ -158,6 +158,15 @@ interface DayOneTeamMetadata {
 }
 
 const REQUIRED_LINEUP_POSITIONS: readonly Position[] = ['C', '1B', '2B', '3B', 'SS', 'LF', 'CF', 'RF', 'DH'];
+const LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS = 81;
+const PROJECTED_WIN_MAX_SPREAD = 20;
+const PROJECTED_WIN_CURVE_EXPONENT = 0.82;
+const ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS = {
+  offense: 0.4,
+  rotation: 0.34,
+  bullpen: 0.18,
+  defense: 0.08,
+} as const;
 
 const DAY_ONE_TEAM_METADATA: Record<string, DayOneTeamMetadata> = {
   nym: {
@@ -723,7 +732,10 @@ function buildTeamScores(players: GeneratedPlayer[], teamId: string): TeamUnitSc
   const defense = hitters.slice(0, 9).reduce((sum, player) => sum + Math.round((player.hitterAttributes.defense ?? 0) / 5.5), 0) / Math.max(1, Math.min(9, hitters.length));
   const farmScore = farm.slice(0, 12).reduce((sum, player) => sum + toDisplayRating(player.overallRating), 0) / Math.max(1, Math.min(12, farm.length));
   const mlb = mlbPlayers.slice(0, 26).reduce((sum, player) => sum + toDisplayRating(player.overallRating), 0) / Math.max(1, Math.min(26, mlbPlayers.length));
-  const projectedWins = Math.max(58, Math.min(104, Math.round(64 + (offense * 0.28) + (rotation * 0.24) + (bullpen * 0.08) + (defense * 0.05))));
+  const winStrength = (offense * ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS.offense)
+    + (rotation * ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS.rotation)
+    + (bullpen * ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS.bullpen)
+    + (defense * ROSTER_WIN_WEIGHTS.defense);
 
   return {
     teamId,
@@ -733,11 +745,38 @@ function buildTeamScores(players: GeneratedPlayer[], teamId: string): TeamUnitSc
     defense,
     farm: farmScore,
     mlb,
-    projectedWins,
+    winStrength,
     topProspectName: playerName(farm[0]),
   };
 }
 
+function projectedWinsForLeagueRank(rankIndex: number, teamCount: number): number {
+  const pairCount = Math.floor(teamCount / 2);
+  if (pairCount === 0) {
+    return LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS;
+  }
+
+  const middleRank = (teamCount - 1) / 2;
+  if (rankIndex === middleRank) {
+    return LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS;
+  }
+
+  const upperHalf = rankIndex < middleRank;
+  const pairIndex = upperHalf ? rankIndex : teamCount - 1 - rankIndex;
+  const pairStrength = (pairCount - pairIndex) / pairCount;
+  const spread = Math.round(PROJECTED_WIN_MAX_SPREAD * Math.pow(pairStrength, PROJECTED_WIN_CURVE_EXPONENT));
+  return LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS + (upperHalf ? spread : -spread);
+}
+
+function buildProjectedWinsByTeam(teamScores: TeamUnitScores[]): Map<string, number> {
+  const ranked = [...teamScores].sort((left, right) =>
+    right.winStrength - left.winStrength
+    || right.mlb - left.mlb
+    || right.farm - left.farm
+    || left.teamId.localeCompare(right.teamId));
+  return new Map(ranked.map((entry, index) => [entry.teamId, projectedWinsForLeagueRank(index, ranked.length)]));
+}
+
 function categoryLabels(scores: TeamUnitScores) {
   return [
     { label: 'middle-of-order thump', score: scores.offense },
@@ -807,9 +846,10 @@ export function buildDayOneTeamCard(input: DayOneTeamCardInput): DayOneTeamCard
 
 export function buildDayOneOrgReview(players: GeneratedPlayer[], teamId: string): DayOneOrgReview {
   const teamScores = TEAMS.map((team) => buildTeamScores(players, team.id));
+  const projectedWinsByTeam = buildProjectedWinsByTeam(teamScores);
   const current = teamScores.find((entry) => entry.teamId === teamId) ?? buildTeamScores(players, teamId);
   const mlbRank = [...teamScores]
-    .sort((left, right) => right.mlb - left.mlb || right.projectedWins - left.projectedWins || left.teamId.localeCompare(right.teamId))
+    .sort((left, right) => right.mlb - left.mlb || right.winStrength - left.winStrength || left.teamId.localeCompare(right.teamId))
     .findIndex((entry) => entry.teamId === teamId) + 1;
   const farmRank = [...teamScores]
     .sort((left, right) => right.farm - left.farm || right.mlb - left.mlb || left.teamId.localeCompare(right.teamId))
@@ -830,7 +870,7 @@ export function buildDayOneOrgReview(players: GeneratedPlayer[], teamId: string)
     weaknesses,
     inheritedStory: `${metadata?.orgStory ?? 'You inherited a franchise with a real identity problem.'} The MLB club is ${tierLabel(mlbTier)} right now and the farm is ${tierLabel(farmTier)} behind it.`,
     topProspectName: current.topProspectName,
-    projectedWins: current.projectedWins,
+    projectedWins: projectedWinsByTeam.get(teamId) ?? LEAGUE_AVERAGE_WINS,
   };
 }
 

packages/sim-core/tests/dayOne.test.ts

@@ -1,14 +1,18 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest';
 import {
+  buildDayOneOrgReview,
   buildDayOneImpacts,
   buildDayOneNarrativePack,
   buildDayOneTeaser,
   buildDayOneTeamCard,
   buildOpeningDayPlan,
   createGameRNG,
   createSeasonState,
+  GameRNG,
+  generateLeaguePlayers,
   pickDayOneCrisis,
   simulateDay,
+  TEAMS,
 } from '../src/index.js';
 import type { GeneratedPlayer } from '../src/player/generation.js';
 
@@ -222,6 +226,17 @@ describe('day one helpers', () => {
     expect(fallbackPack.teaser.aprilWatchItems).toHaveLength(3);
   });
 
+  it('projects a zero-sum 32-team win distribution for Day One org reviews', () => {
+    const players = generateLeaguePlayers(new GameRNG(2124), TEAMS.map((team) => team.id));
+    const wins = TEAMS.map((team) => buildDayOneOrgReview(players, team.id).projectedWins);
+
+    expect(wins.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0)).toBe(TEAMS.length * 81);
+    expect(Math.max(...wins)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(94);
+    expect(Math.min(...wins)).toBeLessThanOrEqual(70);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal > 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
+    expect(wins.filter((winTotal) => winTotal < 81).length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(10);
+  });
+
   it('builds deterministic teaser copy from the same team and Day One choices', () => {
     const context = {
       teamId: 'hou',