A statistical analysis tool for detecting potential insider trading patterns on Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform.
Live Demo: polymarket-insider-detector.vercel.app
This tool analyzes on-chain trading data to identify wallets exhibiting statistically anomalous trading patterns that may indicate insider information access. It combines multiple detection methodologies into a comprehensive risk scoring system.
- Binomial P-Value Testing: Calculates the probability of achieving observed win rates by chance. Values below 0.001 indicate statistically improbable success rates.
- Win Rate Analysis: Flags wallets with win rates exceeding normal distribution expectations (>80% considered highly suspicious).
- Pre-Resolution Trading: Identifies trades placed shortly before market resolution—a key indicator of advance knowledge.
- Last-Minute Ratio: Tracks percentage of trades placed within 1-10 minutes of resolution.
- Average Time Before Resolution: Measures typical trade timing relative to market outcomes.
- Whale Classification: Identifies large position traders ($5k+ trades).
- Mega Whale Detection: Flags extremely large trades ($25k+).
- Pre-Resolution Whale Activity: Particularly suspicious pattern of large bets before resolution.
- Funding Source Analysis: Traces USDC funding on Polygon to identify wallets controlled by the same entity.
- Sybil Detection: Groups wallets with shared funding sources that may be coordinating trades.
- Multi-Market Success: Detects wallets winning across multiple unrelated markets—strong indicator of broad insider access.
- Cross-Market Win Rate: Aggregates performance across diverse prediction categories.
Wallets receive a composite suspicion score (0-10) based on:
- P-value anomaly level
- Win rate deviation
- Pre-resolution timing patterns
- Whale activity indicators
- Cluster membership
- Cross-market success
Risk levels: Low | Medium | High | Critical
- Framework: Next.js 14
- Styling: Tailwind CSS
- Statistics: jstat for binomial probability calculations
- Charts: Recharts for data visualization
- Data Sources:
- Polymarket API (trading data)
- Gamma API (market resolutions)
- Polygon RPC (on-chain funding traces)
# Install dependencies
npm install
# Run development server
npm run dev
# Build for production
npm run build- Real-time wallet analysis dashboard
- Sortable/filterable wallet table
- Detailed wallet modal with trading history
- CSV export functionality
- Risk distribution visualization
- Search by wallet address or username
This tool provides statistical analysis for research and educational purposes. Flagged patterns are probabilistic indicators, not definitive proof of insider trading. Always conduct thorough investigation before drawing conclusions.
MIT